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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to CIN 16, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton. PENALTY on CIN-82-C.Carter, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model