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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to CIN 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 29 for 5 yards (27-M.Blair).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model