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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to CIN 25, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -1.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model