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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 46

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(:05) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.54 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model