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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP