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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 8

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP