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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 88

Denver Broncos 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to LV 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.02 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model