4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 21

Denver Broncos 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model