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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.23 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model