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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 6-C.Wadman punts 64 yards to LV 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris to LV 14 for 9 yards (81-T.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model