Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to DET 23 for 13 yards (29-C.Edmonds). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.36 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model