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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 51

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to ARI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -3.24 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP