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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 2

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.61 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 2, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP