Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 58

Detroit Lions 17 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(:26) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ARI 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 18 for 4 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.48 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model