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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to DET 31 for 1 yard (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.48 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model