Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 66

Detroit Lions 17 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to ARI 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. Penalty on ARI-42-D.Gardeck, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model