Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 75

Detroit Lions 17 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(7:21) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to ARI 34, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.15 EP
53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model