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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 5-Z.Gonzalez 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model