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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 4-A.Lee punts 55 yards to DET 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to DET 27 for -3 yards (16-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.98 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model