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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 5-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model