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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 64

Detroit Lions 24 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to ARI 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 30 for 6 yards (25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP