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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 51

Detroit Lions 24 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 6-S.Martin punts 11 yards to ARI 40, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-82-L.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model