4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 41

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to ARI 1, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-49-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP