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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 63

Detroit Lions 24 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to ARI 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 16 for 8 yards (35-M.Killebrew). Penalty on DET-49-C.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -0.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model