Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 71

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

(14:54) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-T.Davis to GB 26 for 1 yard (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.04 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model