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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:55) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 36 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-43-H.Bradley.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model