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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 85

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to GB 33, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model