Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 73

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

(13:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to GB 34, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model