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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 81

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to GB 42, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.01 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP