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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to CHI 18, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 23 for 5 yards (30-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.48 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model