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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 33

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles up the middle to GB 30 for 3 yards (24-R.Greene).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP