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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 45

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to GB 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model