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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.35 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP