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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to CHI 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-45-J.Iyiegbuniwe, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CHI 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model