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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 1-T.Long 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.00 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model