4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model