Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 16

(4:12) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to IND 10, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model