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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 30, RECOVERED by IND-30-G.Odum at LAC 27. 30-G.Odum to LAC 27 for no gain (27-J.Watkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP