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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 58

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(8:04) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to DAL 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP