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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 40

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-B.Fowler ran ob at DAL 29 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model