Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 66

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 35

What Actually Happened

(13:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to DAL 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-T.Austin. PENALTY on NYG-17-C.Core, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.62 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model