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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 35 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to NYG 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP