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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 35

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to DAL 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model