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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 35 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(5:21) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-J.Peppers ran ob at NYG 25 for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model