Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 62

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(9:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to PIT 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model