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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 23

New England Patriots 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:21) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model