Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 65

New England Patriots 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(12:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to PIT 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.81 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model