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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 9-C.Boswell 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.10 EP