4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to NE 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model