4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 83

New England Patriots 33 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to PIT 45, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model